Don't Believe Anybody - Except Maybe This Guy

This is dedicated to those with their heads in the sand who don't think we're in - as I described it in my earlier post - an economic shitstorm. And to those who don't think this is all that serious.

I heard Tom Hoenig speak a couple weeks ago. He's the head of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank, and is one of the guys who helps decide the Fed's economic policy. He was also one of the few on the Fed Board who worried about the housing bubble back when everyone else dismissed it. The guy is smart.

He started his speech something like this: "I have nothing good to tell you...except there IS a future." (Rueful laughter from the audience.)

He was pretty somber. Though KC escaped it for awhile, we're now smack dab in the middle of what everyone else is going through, he said. The symptoms are everywhere, with the rising unemployment rate a major concern.

One of the big problems, it appears, is us. We've stopped buying stuff. We're cutting back. And because consumers are a HUGE percentage of the economy, we're REALLY in the tank.

This is gonna take awhile. Hoenig said that with the combination of the economic stimulus plan and the Fed's easing of monetary policy, he hoped we'd see slow, steady growth by the third or fourth quarter. Emphasis on "slow."

That's his best guess. But keep your fingers crossed, boys and girls, because nobody really knows.